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| The 5 Wrongest Hunches In American History |
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Gut instincts are kind of our thing -- for better and, often, for worse
1865
"Abe, you're gonna love 'Our American Cousin'"
It's unclear who suggested President Lincoln go to the theater on April 14, but whoever recommended the idea wasn't necessarily wrong. 'Our American Cousin' was a hit comedy that had been running in various cities for seven years, and Lincoln was said to be laughing through much of it. It was the timing of that hunch that proved deeply unfortunate.
1985
"What we should do with the most popular soft drink in the history of the world is to change it."
The introduction of New Coke came with assurances from Coca-Cola executives that people would adopt the new formula. America rebelled against it immediately, without even rudimentary social media to foment the unrest. Three months later, the old Coke was reintroduced as Coca-Cola Classic.
Early 1990s
"My next role should be something more adult, and I have found just the thing."
After 'Saved by the Bell' went away in 1993, Elizabeth Berkley took the starring role in 'Showgirls', the first big-budget movie to earn an NC-17 rating. Her decision, she later said, was pure instinct. (Apparently, so was the studio's; MGM advanced Joe Eszterhas $2 million for the script, based on a note he wrote on a cocktail napkin.) It bombed, and Berkley's career stalled. It's since become a cult classic, so I have a hunch she may have been playing the long game.
Early 2000s
"The housing market will expand forever!"
During the Bush years, a number of smart, seemingly well-informed people not only said there was no housing bubble -- New York Federal Reserve Bank: "Our analysis reveals little evidence of a housing bubble" -- but even joked about it, like 'New York Times' columnist Paul Krugman, who wrote in 2002, "Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." They ignored one of the first hard facts a child learns: Bubbles pop.
2015
"You're not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency."
Jeb Bush said this to Donald Trump. Out loud. What's even more shocking from today's perspective is how true it felt.
- Dave Holmes |
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